What’s Behind Your Mortgage Rate?

The state of the economy, in Canada and elsewhere, matters a lot

The money that banks lend out comes from depositors and investors, both here in Canada and in other countries. So, funding cost is largely driven by the interest rates in these places. And these rates move up and down for several reasons.

Strong economic growth means more demand for money

In general, strong economic growth tends to lead to higher interest rates, while weak growth leads to low interest rates. Here’s why: When the economy is strong, more companies want to borrow from investors to expand their business. So, a mortgage provider has to pay a higher interest rate to get investors to lend to it. And when the economy is weak, the reverse is true.

The global economy matters

Many Canadian banks borrow money in other countries, particularly the United States. And keep in mind that the world’s financial markets are interconnected. Interest rates in Canada respond to what happens elsewhere. For example, foreign interest rates fell during 2019. Interest rates for Canadian five-year fixed mortgages dropped in response.

The Bank of Canada influences interest rates

The Bank of Canada also affects interest rates, mainly through changes in our policy interest rate.

When the economy is strong, we may raise this rate to keep inflation from rising above our target. Likewise, when the economy is weak, we may lower our policy rate to keep inflation from falling below target. Changes in the policy interest rate lead to similar changes in short-term interest rates. These include the prime rate, which is used by the banks as a basis for pricing variable-rate mortgages. A policy-rate change can also affect long-term interest rates, especially if people expect that change to be long-lasting.

In the past, high and variable inflation eroded the value of money. In response, investors demanded higher interest rates to offset those effects. This increased funding costs for mortgage lenders. But since the Bank of Canada began targeting inflation in the 1990s, interest rates and uncertainty about future inflation have declined. As a result, funding costs are now much lower.

Mortgage Rates and The Pandemic

It looked like a puzzle: As the COVID-19 pandemic spread, central banks—including the Bank of Canada—quickly cut interest rates to cushion the blow. But rates on new mortgages didn’t decline much, and some actually went up. Why?

Remember that your lender’s funding cost determines most of the mortgage rate. The cost of funding jumped in the early days of the pandemic as investors became nervous. Many simply wanted to hold on to their cash given how uncertain everything was. So, the funding that is normally easy for lenders to get slowed to a trickle. This drove up the funding cost, even as the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate fell.

The Bank of Canada has taken many steps to help financial markets work better during the pandemic, along with the federal government and other public authorities. The goal is to ease strains in funding markets, so lenders can keep supplying credit to households and businesses.

These steps include launching programs to make sure lenders can access the funding they need. As a result of these actions, funding costs fell and some mortgage rates on new loans started to decline.

Keep in mind: existing mortgages didn’t become more expensive during the pandemic. They either have an interest rate that is fixed until its next renewal or a variable interest rate that declined along with the Bank of Canada policy rate.